🏡 Orange County Real Estate Trends to Watch in 2026

 

Orange County’s 2026 housing market is entering a new phase — one defined by modest price growth, persistent inventory challenges, and shifting buyer psychology.  As a seasoned real estate strategist, media commentator and thought leader, I’m breaking down what homeowners, buyers, and investors need to know to stay ahead in this evolving landscape.

🏡 Orange County Real Estate Trends to Watch in 2026

By Cara Ameer, Luxury Real Estate Strategist

As we step into 2026, Orange County’s housing market is no longer riding the rollercoaster of pandemic-era volatility. Instead, we’re seeing a slow, steady recalibration — one that rewards strategic preparation, expert negotiation, and deep local insight. Here’s what I’m watching closely this year:

 

1. 📉➡️📈 Price Growth Will Be Modest — But Strategic

After years of double-digit appreciation, Orange County is now pacing itself.

• Forecasted appreciation: +1% to +2.5%
• Median home price: ~$1.15M, up just 0.1% YoY
• Statewide projection: +3.6% (Orange County likely below that due to affordability ceilings)

What this means:

Sellers must price precisely. Buyers have negotiating power — but turnkey homes still command premiums.

 

2. 🏠 Inventory Remains Tight

OC continues to operate below a 3-month supply — well under the national average.

• Current supply: ~2.6 months
• Impact: Multiple offers on updated homes; longer DOM for dated or overpriced listings

My advice:
Sellers should prep homes with strategic upgrades. Buyers must act quickly and be pre-approved.

 

3. 💸 Affordability Is the New Battleground

Only 18% of households can afford a median-priced home in OC.

• • Prices are 172% above the national average

• Wages are rising, but not fast enough to close the gap
• Inflation-adjusted home prices may decline slightly — improving real affordability

What I’m seeing:
Buyers are more selective. They’re prioritizing condition, location, and insurance costs. Sellers must meet the moment with value.

4. 🏘️ Neighborhoods to Watch

Each OC submarket tells a different story.

• Irvine: New construction and tech-driven demand
• Dana Point & Laguna Beach: Luxury coastal homes with lifestyle appeal
• Santa Ana & Anaheim: Entry-level buyers and ADU potential
• Mission Viejo & Rancho Santa Margarita: Family-friendly with strong school zones

My take:
Turnkey homes in walkable, lifestyle-rich areas will outperform. Dated inventory will face price discovery.

5. 🏗️ ADUs & Regulation Shape the Landscape

Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) continue to expand supply — but slowly.

• ADUs soften rent growth, not reverse it
• Regulation is expanding, especially around short-term rentals and insurance compliance

What I’m advising clients:
Explore ADU potential for multi-gen living or rental income. Stay ahead of local zoning and insurance shifts.

6. 📉➡️📈 Mortgage Rates May Ease — Unlocking Demand

• 2025 average: ~6.6%
• 2026 forecast: ~6.0% by year-end
• Even small drops can unlock sidelined buyers

What I’m watching:
Rate-sensitive buyers re-entering the market mid-year. Sellers should time listings accordingly.